Strategic Decision Intelligence

Replace weeks of modeling
with minutes of clarity.

Risk-weighted analysis for decision makers. Every decision modeled through volatility, probability, and scenario analysis.

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M&A · CapEx · Market Entry · Risk · Forecasting · 9 more workflows

The same analytical framework used in institutional PE valuation — now available for every decision.

14

Decision workflows

< 2 min

From description to full analysis

Risk-weighted

Probability-adjusted verdict on every decision

Memo-ready

Board-ready IC memo, auto-generated

Meridian Logistics — Acquisition

Base EMV

$142.4M

↑ +18.2% vs prior

Downside P10

$88.1M

Bear scenario

Confidence

78%

Acquisition · 6 drivers

Monte Carlo — Revenue distribution (1,000 runs)

Acumen Verdict

"Proceed — risk-adjusted return exceeds 22% hurdle. Recommend staging: 60% at close, 40% contingent on Year 1 EBITDA. Exit multiple risk is the dominant variable."

Trusted by teams at

Fever-Tree

Ontario Teachers'

Welsh Carson

City of Austin

Andela

Boyne Capital

How It Works

Three steps from prompt
to memo.

Describe your decision in plain language. Acumen does the rest — framework selection, driver mapping, scenario construction, and memo generation.

01

✍️

Describe your decision

Type or paste your decision context in plain language — acquisition rationale, CapEx proposal, market entry thesis. Acumen's AI reads the text, detects your workflow type, extracts stated parameters, and flags what needs to be confirmed.

AI Intake Parameter extraction Stated vs. inferred

02

⚙️

Acumen builds the model

The platform automatically selects and runs the right combination of analyzes — scenario trees, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity tornado, real-options lattice — calibrated to your workflow and the variables it has extracted.

Scenario analysis Monte Carlo Sensitivity Real options

03

📄

Export memo-ready outputs

Acumen generates a verdict with supporting rationale, identifies the dominant risk driver, and produces a memo — editable, export-ready, and structured for institutional review.

Memo export Risk summary Scenario export

Features

Built for the decisions
that actually matter.

Every analytical method Acumen runs has been purpose-built for capital allocation — not adapted from generic BI tooling.

🎯

Scenario analysis

Downside, base, and upside cases constructed automatically from your inputs. Each case shows revenue, EBITDA, return metrics, and EMV contribution — side by side.

Bear / base / bull with probability weights
EMV calculation across all cases
Case comparison table

📊

Monte Carlo simulation

Run up to 1,000 simulations per analysis. Get P10 / P50 / P90 outcome distribution, probability of exceeding hurdle, and variance attribution by driver.

Up to 1,000 simulations per run
P10 / P50 / P90 percentile readout
Driver variance decomposition

🌪️

Sensitivity & tornado

Tornado chart identifies which variables move the needle most. Sensitivity matrix shows how outcomes shift across a grid of two key assumptions simultaneously.

Tornado chart by output variable
Two-variable sensitivity matrix
Driver ranking by impact magnitude

🌿

Real options & decision trees

Binomial lattice modeling for staged investments, optionality pricing, and EMV decision trees — built for R&D pipelines, JVs, and phased capital deployments.

Binomial lattice (CRR model)
EMV decision tree with branch probabilities
Option value vs. intrinsic value output

🗂️

12 workflow types — from prompt to framework in seconds

Acumen detects your decision type and routes it to the right analytical framework automatically. No template selection. No manual configuration.

Mergers & Acquisitions CapEx Investment Market Entry R&D Pipeline Joint Venture / Partnership Asset Disposal Turnaround Portfolio Rebalancing Organic vs. Inorganic Refinancing New Product Launch Pattern Recognition

Private Equity

PE Deal Underwriting

Use Case — Evaluate acquisitions with speed, rigor, and confidence

Acumen enables PE firms to model acquisitions end-to-end — combining scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and real options valuation to produce a clear investment recommendation.

Instantly generate NPV, IRR, and downside risk profiles

Identify key value drivers and sensitivities

Produce memo-ready outputs automatically

Quantify loss-of-capital probability and downside floors

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Real Decision Example — Acquire Regional Logistics Firm Proceed

Expected Value

$18.4M

↑ Risk-adjusted

Loss Probability

22%

Downside floor $9.1M

Confidence

71%

Acquisition · 7 drivers

Decision Tree — Acquisition pathway

Acumen Verdict

"Proceed — EMV of $18.4M exceeds hurdle. Stage 60% at close, 40% contingent on Year 1 EBITDA. Growth rate is the dominant variable."

Corporate Strategy

Strategic Expansion & Market Entry

Use Case — Decide when and how to enter new markets

Companies can model expansion strategies — EMEA entry, new geography, new vertical — under multiple scenarios to understand timing, capital requirements, and risk before committing.

Compare Bull / Base / Bear outcomes side by side

Evaluate staged entry vs. full capital deployment

Identify breakeven thresholds and success conditions

Stress test pricing, adoption rate, and margin assumptions

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EMEA Market Entry — SaaS Platform Proceed (staged)

Base EMV

$31.2M

↑ 3-year horizon

Breakeven

18 mo

Under base assumptions

Bear Floor

$8.4M

22% probability

Scenario comparison — 3-year NPV

Bull

$52.1M

Base

$31.2M

Bear

$8.4M

Scenario	Adoption	Margin	NPV	Status
Bull	38%	34%	$52.1M	Go
Base	22%	26%	$31.2M	Go (staged)
Bear	11%	15%	$8.4M	Defer

Acumen Verdict

"Proceed with staged entry — deploy 40% now with go/no-go at month 9. Adoption rate is the critical variable; monitor weekly."

CFO / Corporate Finance

Capital Allocation & Corporate Finance

Use Case — Optimize how capital is deployed across initiatives

Acumen helps CFOs and operators evaluate CapEx, capital structure, and financing decisions with clarity — replacing static spreadsheet models with dynamic, scenario-linked analysis.

Model WACC, leverage, and debt coverage scenarios

Compare ROI across competing capital investments

Identify optimal capital structure under constraints

Quantify tradeoffs between debt, equity, and timing

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CapEx Allocation — Manufacturing Upgrade Allocate

Optimal WACC

9.4%

↓ vs 11.2% status quo

Best ROI Project

Line 3

IRR 28.4%

Payback

2.8 yr

Base case

Competing investments — IRR comparison

Line 3

28.4%

Line 1

20.5%

IT Infra

13.8%

Office

6.3%

Acumen Verdict

"Allocate to Line 3 first — highest IRR at 28.4% with 2.8yr payback. Defer office capex; IRR below cost of capital at current leverage."

Portfolio Management

Portfolio Risk Monitoring & Downside Protection

Use Case — Detect hidden risks across multiple investments

Instead of static reporting, Acumen continuously analyzes pattern risk, correlations, and downside clustering across a portfolio — surfacing exposure before it crystallizes.

Identify co-movement risks (e.g. EBITDA compression + rising rates)

Detect concentration and tail risk exposure across holdings

Quantify portfolio-wide risk scores by driver

Highlight decisions at risk before they fail

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Portfolio Risk Monitor — 6 Active Decisions 2 At Risk

Portfolio EMV

$142M

↑ +6.2% vs last review

Tail Risk (P10)

$61M

↑ concentration risk

At-Risk Count

2 / 6

Rate sensitivity

Decision risk scores

Meridian Logistics

82 ⚠

Apex Industrials

74 ⚠

Vantage Healthcare

45

Clearfield REIT

38

Northbridge Tech

22

⚠ Pattern Alert

"Meridian and Apex share EBITDA + rate sensitivity. Combined downside exposure is $34M — review hedging strategy before Q3 close."

Executive Strategy

Strategic Planning & Scenario Simulation

Use Case — Replace static spreadsheets with dynamic decision modeling

Executives can simulate strategic decisions — product launches, partnerships, or operational changes — under uncertainty, seeing the full distribution of outcomes before committing.

Run thousands of simulated outcomes with Monte Carlo

Visualize NPV distributions across P10 / P50 / P90

Identify critical assumptions driving outcomes

Incorporate real options — expand, delay, or abandon

Run this analysis →

Monte Carlo — New Product Launch (1,000 runs) Viable

P50 NPV

$24.8M

Median outcome

P10 Floor

$6.2M

10th percentile

P90 Ceiling

$48.3M

90th percentile

NPV distribution — 1,000 simulated outcomes

$6M$24M$48M

P10$6.2M

P50$24.8M

P90$48.3M

Hurdle$15M

P(exceed)74%

Acumen Verdict

"74% probability of exceeding $15M hurdle. Pricing elasticity is the dominant driver — a 10% price reduction cuts P50 to $18.1M. Recommend launching with staged pricing."

< 3 min

Average time from prompt to full analysis, including Monte Carlo

12 types

Decision workflows auto-detected and routed by AI

Memo-ready

Memo format accepted by investment teams without reformatting

SOC 2

Institutional-grade security with full audit trail on every decision

Pricing

Priced around
decision capacity.

Each run is real analytical work — scenario construction, simulation, and AI driver population. Plans are sized for how intensively you use the platform.

Essential

Individual operators and early users evaluating a limited number of decisions.

$249

/month

Active decisionsUp to 3

Runs / month20

Simulation capacityNo Monte Carlo

Includes

Core workflows: Capex, Operations, Forecasting
Scenario analysis (downside / base / upside)
Basic decision tree analysis
Limited AI driver suggestions
Basic memo export

–No Monte Carlo simulation

–No real-options depth

Common questions.

What is a "run" in Acumen? ▾

A run is a single analysis execution — the full cycle of scenario construction, simulation (where applicable), sensitivity analysis, and output generation for one decision. A single decision can have multiple runs as you revise assumptions or test new scenarios.

Do I need financial modeling experience? ▾

No. Acumen is designed so that operators and strategists can describe a decision in plain language and receive a structured analysis. The AI handles framework selection, driver mapping, and model construction. You review, edit parameters, and export.

What workflow types does Acumen support? ▾

Acumen currently supports 12 workflow types: Mergers & Acquisitions, CapEx Investment, Market Entry, R&D Pipeline, Joint Venture / Partnership, Asset Disposal, Turnaround, Portfolio Rebalancing, Organic vs. Inorganic Growth, Refinancing, New Product Launch, and Pattern Recognition. New frameworks are added regularly.

How does the AI extract parameters? ▾

When you submit a decision description, Acumen's AI parses the text to extract stated figures (transaction size, EBITDA, growth rates, multiples) and flags inferred parameters — values it has estimated from benchmarks because they were not explicitly stated. You can edit any inferred value before running the analysis.

Can I export outputs as a memo? ▾

Yes. Acumen generates a structured memo with verdict, rationale, risk summary, scenario table, and key driver analysis — formatted for institutional review. The memo is fully editable before export and available in PDF and structured data formats on Professional plans and above.

Is my data kept confidential? ▾

Yes. Acumen is built to institutional security standards. All decision data is encrypted in transit and at rest, logically isolated per workspace, and never used to train models. Enterprise customers can opt for dedicated infrastructure and full audit trails. SOC 2 Type II certification is in progress.

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Decision
Intelligence
for everyone.

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1

Organization

2

Your Details

About your organization

Tell us about
your company.

This helps Acumen recommend the right plan and configure your workspace.

Organization type *

Private Equity / Investment Fund

Deal underwriting, portfolio monitoring, exit analysis

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CFO, strategy, business development decisions

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Client engagements, deal advisory, strategic analysis

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Please select your organization type.

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51–500 employees

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Select your plan

Essential

$249/mo

3 decisions · 20 runs

Professional

$599/mo

10 decisions · 75 runs

Institutional

$1,299/mo

Unlimited · 300 runs

Enterprise

Custom

Unlimited · Unlimited

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Due to high demand, we are admitting users on a rolling basis. Select your plan below — we'll activate it when your spot opens.

Essential

$249/mo

20 analyses/month

Replace weeks of modelingwith minutes of clarity.

Three steps from promptto memo.

Built for the decisionsthat actually matter.

Priced arounddecision capacity.

Common questions.

Your next capital decisiondeserves better infrastructure.

Tell us aboutyour company.

Almost there.

You're on the list.

Replace weeks of modeling
with minutes of clarity.

Three steps from prompt
to memo.

Built for the decisions
that actually matter.

Priced around
decision capacity.

Your next capital decision
deserves better infrastructure.

Tell us about
your company.