Strategic Decision Intelligence

Replace weeks of modeling
with minutes of clarity.

Risk-weighted analysis for decision makers. Every decision modeled through volatility, probability, and scenario analysis.

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M&A · CapEx · Market Entry · Risk · Forecasting · 9 more workflows

The same analytical framework used in institutional PE valuation — now available for every decision.

Decision workflows

< 2 min

From description to full analysis

Risk-weighted

Probability-adjusted verdict on every decision

Memo-ready

Board-ready IC memo, auto-generated

Meridian Logistics — Acquisition

Base EMV

$142.4M

↑ +18.2% vs prior

Downside P10

$88.1M

Bear scenario

Confidence

78%

Acquisition · 6 drivers

Monte Carlo — Revenue distribution (1,000 runs)

Acumen Verdict

"Proceed — risk-adjusted return exceeds 22% hurdle. Recommend staging: 60% at close, 40% contingent on Year 1 EBITDA. Exit multiple risk is the dominant variable."

Trusted by teams at

Fever-Tree

Ontario Teachers'

Welsh Carson

City of Austin

Andela

Boyne Capital

How It Works

Three steps from prompt
to memo.

Describe your decision in plain language. Acumen does the rest — framework selection, driver mapping, scenario construction, and memo generation.

✍️

Describe your decision

Type or paste your decision context in plain language — acquisition rationale, CapEx proposal, market entry thesis. Acumen's AI reads the text, detects your workflow type, extracts stated parameters, and flags what needs to be confirmed.

AI Intake Parameter extraction Stated vs. inferred

⚙️

Acumen builds the model

The platform automatically selects and runs the right combination of analyzes — scenario trees, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity tornado, real-options lattice — calibrated to your workflow and the variables it has extracted.

Scenario analysis Monte Carlo Sensitivity Real options

📄

Export memo-ready outputs

Acumen generates a verdict with supporting rationale, identifies the dominant risk driver, and produces a memo — editable, export-ready, and structured for institutional review.

Memo export Risk summary Scenario export

Features

Built for the decisions
that actually matter.

Every analytical method Acumen runs has been purpose-built for capital allocation — not adapted from generic BI tooling.

🎯

Scenario analysis

Downside, base, and upside cases constructed automatically from your inputs. Each case shows revenue, EBITDA, return metrics, and EMV contribution — side by side.

Bear / base / bull with probability weights
EMV calculation across all cases
Case comparison table

📊

Monte Carlo simulation

Run up to 1,000 simulations per analysis. Get P10 / P50 / P90 outcome distribution, probability of exceeding hurdle, and variance attribution by driver.

Up to 1,000 simulations per run
P10 / P50 / P90 percentile readout
Driver variance decomposition

🌪️

Sensitivity & tornado

Tornado chart identifies which variables move the needle most. Sensitivity matrix shows how outcomes shift across a grid of two key assumptions simultaneously.

Tornado chart by output variable
Two-variable sensitivity matrix
Driver ranking by impact magnitude

🌿

Real options & decision trees

Binomial lattice modeling for staged investments, optionality pricing, and EMV decision trees — built for R&D pipelines, JVs, and phased capital deployments.

Binomial lattice (CRR model)
EMV decision tree with branch probabilities
Option value vs. intrinsic value output

🗂️

12 workflow types — from prompt to framework in seconds

Acumen detects your decision type and routes it to the right analytical framework automatically. No template selection. No manual configuration.

Mergers & Acquisitions CapEx Investment Market Entry R&D Pipeline Joint Venture / Partnership Asset Disposal Turnaround Portfolio Rebalancing Organic vs. Inorganic Refinancing New Product Launch Pattern Recognition

Private Equity

PE Deal Underwriting

Use Case — Evaluate acquisitions with speed, rigor, and confidence

Acumen enables PE firms to model acquisitions end-to-end — combining scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and real options valuation to produce a clear investment recommendation.

Instantly generate NPV, IRR, and downside risk profiles

Identify key value drivers and sensitivities

Produce memo-ready outputs automatically

Quantify loss-of-capital probability and downside floors

Run this analysis →

Real Decision Example — Acquire Regional Logistics Firm Proceed

Expected Value

$18.4M

↑ Risk-adjusted

Loss Probability

22%

Downside floor $9.1M

Confidence

71%

Acquisition · 7 drivers

Decision Tree — Acquisition pathway

Acumen Verdict

"Proceed — EMV of $18.4M exceeds hurdle. Stage 60% at close, 40% contingent on Year 1 EBITDA. Growth rate is the dominant variable."

Corporate Strategy

Strategic Expansion & Market Entry

Use Case — Decide when and how to enter new markets

Companies can model expansion strategies — EMEA entry, new geography, new vertical — under multiple scenarios to understand timing, capital requirements, and risk before committing.

Compare Bull / Base / Bear outcomes side by side

Evaluate staged entry vs. full capital deployment

Identify breakeven thresholds and success conditions

Stress test pricing, adoption rate, and margin assumptions

Run this analysis →

EMEA Market Entry — SaaS Platform Proceed (staged)

Base EMV

$31.2M

↑ 3-year horizon

Breakeven

18 mo

Under base assumptions

Bear Floor

$8.4M

22% probability

Scenario comparison — 3-year NPV

Bull

$52.1M

Base

$31.2M

Bear

$8.4M

Scenario	Adoption	Margin	NPV	Status
Bull	38%	34%	$52.1M	Go
Base	22%	26%	$31.2M	Go (staged)
Bear	11%	15%	$8.4M	Defer

Acumen Verdict

"Proceed with staged entry — deploy 40% now with go/no-go at month 9. Adoption rate is the critical variable; monitor weekly."

CFO / Corporate Finance

Capital Allocation & Corporate Finance

Use Case — Optimize how capital is deployed across initiatives

Acumen helps CFOs and operators evaluate CapEx, capital structure, and financing decisions with clarity — replacing static spreadsheet models with dynamic, scenario-linked analysis.

Model WACC, leverage, and debt coverage scenarios

Compare ROI across competing capital investments

Identify optimal capital structure under constraints

Quantify tradeoffs between debt, equity, and timing

Run this analysis →

CapEx Allocation — Manufacturing Upgrade Allocate

Optimal WACC

9.4%

↓ vs 11.2% status quo

Best ROI Project

Line 3

IRR 28.4%

Payback

2.8 yr

Base case

Competing investments — IRR comparison

Line 3

28.4%

Line 1

20.5%

IT Infra

13.8%

Office

6.3%

Acumen Verdict

"Allocate to Line 3 first — highest IRR at 28.4% with 2.8yr payback. Defer office capex; IRR below cost of capital at current leverage."

Portfolio Management

Portfolio Risk Monitoring & Downside Protection

Use Case — Detect hidden risks across multiple investments

Instead of static reporting, Acumen continuously analyzes pattern risk, correlations, and downside clustering across a portfolio — surfacing exposure before it crystallizes.

Identify co-movement risks (e.g. EBITDA compression + rising rates)

Detect concentration and tail risk exposure across holdings

Quantify portfolio-wide risk scores by driver

Highlight decisions at risk before they fail

Run this analysis →

Portfolio Risk Monitor — 6 Active Decisions 2 At Risk

Portfolio EMV

$142M

↑ +6.2% vs last review

Tail Risk (P10)

$61M

↑ concentration risk

At-Risk Count

2 / 6

Rate sensitivity

Decision risk scores

Meridian Logistics

82 ⚠

Apex Industrials

74 ⚠

Vantage Healthcare

Clearfield REIT

Northbridge Tech

⚠ Pattern Alert

"Meridian and Apex share EBITDA + rate sensitivity. Combined downside exposure is $34M — review hedging strategy before Q3 close."

Executive Strategy

Strategic Planning & Scenario Simulation

Use Case — Replace static spreadsheets with dynamic decision modeling

Executives can simulate strategic decisions — product launches, partnerships, or operational changes — under uncertainty, seeing the full distribution of outcomes before committing.

Run thousands of simulated outcomes with Monte Carlo

Visualize NPV distributions across P10 / P50 / P90

Identify critical assumptions driving outcomes

Incorporate real options — expand, delay, or abandon

Run this analysis →

Monte Carlo — New Product Launch (1,000 runs) Viable

P50 NPV

$24.8M

Median outcome

P10 Floor

$6.2M

10th percentile

P90 Ceiling

$48.3M

90th percentile

NPV distribution — 1,000 simulated outcomes

$6M$24M$48M

P10$6.2M

P50$24.8M

P90$48.3M

Hurdle$15M

P(exceed)74%

Acumen Verdict

"74% probability of exceeding $15M hurdle. Pricing elasticity is the dominant driver — a 10% price reduction cuts P50 to $18.1M. Recommend launching with staged pricing."

< 3 min

Average time from prompt to full analysis, including Monte Carlo

12 types

Decision workflows auto-detected and routed by AI

Memo-ready

Memo format accepted by investment teams without reformatting

SOC 2

Institutional-grade security with full audit trail on every decision

Pricing

Priced around
decision capacity.

Each run is real analytical work — scenario construction, simulation, and AI driver population. Plans are sized for how intensively you use the platform.

Essential

Individual operators and early users evaluating a limited number of decisions.

$249

/month

Active decisionsUp to 3

Runs / month20

Simulation capacityNo Monte Carlo

Includes

Core workflows: Capex, Operations, Forecasting
Scenario analysis (downside / base / upside)
Basic decision tree analysis
Limited AI driver suggestions
Basic memo export

–No Monte Carlo simulation

–No real-options depth

Common questions.

What is a "run" in Acumen? ▾

A run is a single analysis execution — the full cycle of scenario construction, simulation (where applicable), sensitivity analysis, and output generation for one decision. A single decision can have multiple runs as you revise assumptions or test new scenarios.

Do I need financial modeling experience? ▾

No. Acumen is designed so that operators and strategists can describe a decision in plain language and receive a structured analysis. The AI handles framework selection, driver mapping, and model construction. You review, edit parameters, and export.

What workflow types does Acumen support? ▾

Acumen currently supports 12 workflow types: Mergers & Acquisitions, CapEx Investment, Market Entry, R&D Pipeline, Joint Venture / Partnership, Asset Disposal, Turnaround, Portfolio Rebalancing, Organic vs. Inorganic Growth, Refinancing, New Product Launch, and Pattern Recognition. New frameworks are added regularly.

How does the AI extract parameters? ▾

When you submit a decision description, Acumen's AI parses the text to extract stated figures (transaction size, EBITDA, growth rates, multiples) and flags inferred parameters — values it has estimated from benchmarks because they were not explicitly stated. You can edit any inferred value before running the analysis.

Can I export outputs as a memo? ▾

Yes. Acumen generates a structured memo with verdict, rationale, risk summary, scenario table, and key driver analysis — formatted for institutional review. The memo is fully editable before export and available in PDF and structured data formats on Professional plans and above.

Is my data kept confidential? ▾

Yes. Acumen is built to institutional security standards. All decision data is encrypted in transit and at rest, logically isolated per workspace, and never used to train models. Enterprise customers can opt for dedicated infrastructure and full audit trails. SOC 2 Type II certification is in progress.

Get started today

Your next capital decision
deserves better infrastructure.

Join PE firms, investment banks, and strategy teams using Acumen
to move from brief to decision in minutes, not weeks.

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Models & Analyses (0)

No active models. Describe an objective to generate your first predictive report.

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Acumen Workspace

Strategic Underwriting Console

Good morning.

You have 0 active models under strategic underwriting review. Evaluate acquisitions or capital assets with predictive probability distributions.

Weighted Expected Value $0.0M Total Portfolio NPV

Avg Certainty 0% Certainty Interval

Active Decisions

0 Models under analysis

Average IRR

0.0% Across models

Total Runs Executed

0 Institutional tier

Average MOIC

0.00× Return multiple

Active Decisions under Underwriting New prompt +

📋 No active decisions. Describe your acquisition, capex proposal, or product launch via 'New Analysis'.

Predictive Signals & Alerts

Run an analysis to see activity alerts here.

Risk-Adjusted Verdict

—

Run an analysis to see the recommendation.

—

CONFIDENCE

Prob. of Value Creation

—

Likelihood of positive risk-adjusted return

Downside Exposure

—

Max realistic loss if assumptions fail

Stress scenario floor

Volatility Score

—

Degree of outcome uncertainty

Key Risk Driver

—

Assumption with greatest impact

Scenario Range

Run an analysis to see scenarios.

🏆

Upside Potential (Bull P90)

—

Best-case outcome threshold.

Bull scenario weighting

⚙️

Flexible Option Value

—

Value of flexibility to wait, delay, or stage the decision.

Risk-free baseline: 4.5% Treasury

⚠️

Downside Floor (P10)

—

Minimum expected outcome if conditions deteriorate.

Expected deficit probability: —

Predictive Scenario Allocation EBITDA & returns ranges

Scenario	Probability	NPV EV	Expected IRR	Description
Run an analysis to see scenarios.

✓ What Must Be True

Run an analysis to see key assumptions.

⚠ What Could Break It

Run an analysis to see downside risks.

Stress Scenarios

Recalculate against macroeconomic shocks.

Model Parameters

Run an analysis to see parameters.

Predictive Outcome Distribution 2,000 parallel simulation paths

Downside P10

—

Median P50

—

Upside P90

—

Loss Chance

—

Predictive Trend Cone Outcome range over holding period

Shaded area = 80% confidence interval. Blue = expected path.

Instant Fine-Tuning

Adjust variables to see live impact on NPV and scenarios.

Run an analysis to enable sliders.

Adjusted Expected Value —

Key Assumptions

Driver	Value	Source
Run analysis to see drivers.

📄

No memorandum generated yet

Run an analysis first, then return here to preview and download your IC Memo.

All Decisions

No decisions yet. Run your first analysis to populate this view.

Scenario Lab

Stress-test your active model against different conditions.

Scenario Analysis —

Scenario	Probability	NPV	IRR	Notes
Run an analysis to populate the Scenario Lab.

Stress Test Scenarios

Downside P10

—

Expected P50

—

Upside P90

—

Settings

Getting Started

How Acumen Works

Acumen turns a business or financial decision into a risk-adjusted verdict in under a minute. Here is how to run an analysis and how to read every part of the output.

Pick a decision type

Click New Decision and choose the workflow that matches your situation — M&A / Acquisition, CapEx Investment, Market Entry, New Product Launch, Restructuring / Turnaround, R&D Pipeline, Joint Venture, Asset Disposal, Refinancing, Portfolio Rebalancing, or Organic vs. Inorganic Growth. Each workflow is pre-modeled with the variables that matter most for that decision, so you are never starting from a blank spreadsheet.

Enter your inputs

Fill in the values you know — investment size, expected returns, growth rates, volatility, time horizon. Anything you leave at its default is handled with a reasonable industry assumption. You do not need precise figures to get a useful first read; the model is built to work with estimates and show you how sensitive the outcome is to each one.

Run the analysis

Acumen runs a probability-weighted simulation across four scenarios — Bull, Base, Bear, and Stress — and produces a single risk-adjusted verdict with the supporting numbers. This takes a few seconds. You can then adjust any input and re-run instantly to see how the verdict changes.

Reading Your Output

The result panel has six parts. Here is what each one tells you.

Risk-Adjusted Verdict

The headline recommendation. It is one of six outcomes:

Proceed — move forward Stage — commit in phases Wait — hold for a better window Monitor — watch key triggers Restructure — rework the terms Reject — do not proceed

The verdict is not a coin flip on the average outcome — it weighs the full range of results, including how bad the downside gets and how likely it is. A deal with a high average but a catastrophic stress case may still come back as Stage or Restructure rather than Proceed.

Confidence Gauge

The circular gauge on the right shows how confident the model is in the verdict, as a percentage. Higher confidence means the scenarios agree with each other; lower confidence means the outcome swings widely depending on assumptions — a signal to tighten your inputs or treat the verdict as directional.

The Four Metric Cards

Probability of Value Creation — the chance the decision produces a positive risk-adjusted return. Above ~65% is strong; below ~40% is a warning.

Downside Exposure — the realistic worst-case loss if your assumptions are wrong. This is the stress-scenario floor, not the average — it is what you are risking.

Volatility Score — how uncertain the outcome is, from 0 to 100, with a plain-language label (Low / Moderate / High). High volatility means wide-ranging outcomes and more risk to manage.

Key Risk Driver — the single assumption with the greatest impact on the result. This is where to focus your diligence; a small change here moves the verdict more than anything else.

Scenario Range

Four outcomes side by side — Bull (everything goes right), Base (expected case), Bear (things go wrong), and Stress (severe shock). Each shows its probability, dollar outcome, and a one-line description. Click any scenario to see how it shifts the metrics. The spread between Bull and Stress tells you how much is genuinely at stake.

Recommended Next Step

A concrete action based on the verdict — what to do now, not just what the model thinks. For a Stage verdict it might suggest committing a percentage now with a go/no-go checkpoint; for Monitor it names the trigger to watch. This turns the analysis into a decision you can act on.

Tips for the Best Results

• Adjust and re-run. Change the Key Risk Driver in the Scenario Lab and watch how the verdict responds — that sensitivity is often more useful than any single number.

• Trust the downside, not the average. The average outcome can look fine while the stress case is fatal. Always check Downside Exposure before committing.

• Use it as a first screen. Acumen is built to tell you in 60 seconds whether a decision is worth a deeper dive — not to replace full diligence on the ones that pass.

• Save and compare. Saved analyses appear under All Decisions, so you can line up several options and compare their verdicts side by side.

Replace weeks of modelingwith minutes of clarity.

Three steps from promptto memo.

Built for the decisionsthat actually matter.

Priced arounddecision capacity.

Common questions.

Your next capital decisiondeserves better infrastructure.

Tell us aboutyour company.

Almost there.

Your account is created.

Replace weeks of modeling
with minutes of clarity.

Three steps from prompt
to memo.

Built for the decisions
that actually matter.

Priced around
decision capacity.

Your next capital decision
deserves better infrastructure.

Tell us about
your company.